Understanding Our Predictive Analysis Approach
Our predictive analysis combines historical emergency response data with advanced modeling techniques to help inform planning decisions. Here's what you should know about how we develop these insights.
Historical Data as Our Foundation
We use your department's actual incident and response data to understand patterns and calibrate our models. This includes:
- Emergency call locations and types
- Call handling and turnout times
- Response and drive times across different areas
- Unit deployment patterns
- Time-of-day variations
While this gives us a strong foundation for predictions, it's important to remember that future patterns may differ from historical trends as your community evolves.
Geographic Analysis
To analyze coverage and response times, we divide your service area into equal hexagonal cells. This approach allows us to compare different areas consistently.
The size of these hexagons is customized for your jurisdiction to balance detail with useful analysis.
The results for each hex are based on the location of the highest demand for that hex. This may sometimes cause unexpected results (for example, a location on a highway with restricted access from neighbouring hexes).
Drive Time Modeling
Our drive times are based on:
- Your road network and theoretical drive times
- Typical drive times and speed across the road network
- Historical response data to calibrate our predictions
While we calibrate these estimates with your historical data, actual response times may vary based on day-to-day real-world conditions like weather, traffic, or construction.
Performance Modeling
Our performance and response time predictions account for the complete emergency response timeline:
- Alarm processing time (how long it takes to process the 911 call)
- Turnout time (how long it takes crews to get ready and leave the station)
- Drive time (how long it takes to reach the incident)
This comprehensive approach allows us to model both first-unit arrival times and the assembly of multiple units for more complex incidents by Effective Response Force (ERF). Predicting first-on-scene and total ERF considers:
- The number of units needed
- Historical unit busyness and availability patterns
- Typical response configurations
It is worth noting our current modeling focuses on the number of responding units or number of staff rather than specific unit capabilities, so additional consideration may be needed for specialized response scenarios.
Growth Projections
To understand future needs, we incorporate municipal development plans, population growth projections as well as planned road network changes
These projections help inform long-term planning while recognizing that actual growth patterns may vary from current plans.
Making the Most of the Analysis
To get the most value from our analysis:
- Use it as one of several inputs in your planning process
- Combine it with your operational expertise and local knowledge
- Review and update periodically as conditions change
- Consider multiple scenarios when planning for the future
Our goal is to provide you with insights that support informed decision-making while recognizing that emergency services operate in a complex and dynamic environment.